Forecasts for real estate in ‘08

By Joel Persinger
YourRealEstateDude.com

One of the many interesting things that happened in the real estate business this December was the “Eighth Annual Residential Real Estate Conference” presented at the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego. This year it was billed as “Outlook 2008.”

Several hundred industry leaders representing mortgage banking firms, banks, credit unions, real estate brokerages, home builders, developers and the like, attended this early morning symposium to hear the forecasts and fortune-telling of various economists and other industry leaders. This was followed by regional predictions offered by the current graduate students and a round table question and answer period involving a panel of experts. The end result was a rather fascinating examination of the previous year’s business statistics and a host of expert predictions regarding the coming year, not one of which seemed to agree with any of the others to any great extent. This is hardly surprising. Any time you get twenty “experts” to come together and opine, you are certain to get at least twenty different opinions. As my grandfather used to say, “A camel is nothing but a horse that was designed by a committee.”

All the same, there were some general agreements and not just a few interesting little tidbits of information that came out of it. Among them was the consensus that the recent downturn in the San Diego real estate market is quite different than that which occurred in the early 1990’s. Deputy Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors Doctor Robert Kleinhenz, Ph.D. was most eloquent in his defense of this assertion when he clarified the differences in the basic economies of the two periods and the underlining causes of the downturns. According to Dr. Kleinhenz, the housing slump of the 1990’s was chiefly the result of high paying jobs leaving the County as the companies which offered them moved to other states. I was practicing real estate at the time and vividly remember the mass migration of aerospace jobs from San Diego to Denver, Colorado during that period. Aerospace was one of many industries that left town. The result was a staggering drop in home prices during a time when interest rates were quite high. The real estate market simply came to a halt.

By contrast, today’s San Diego economy is far more vibrant and the causes of today’s real estate slump are quite different. Unlike previous real estate downturns which were caused by other forces in the economy, Dr. Kleinhenz demonstrated that, for the first time that he could discover, our current downturn has actually come about in reverse. In the past, the real estate market has slowed as a result of other disruptions in the economy. This was the case in the 1990’s. However, for the first time according to Dr. Kleinhenz, the real estate market was driven to its knees by itself. There was universal agreement between the presenters at the conference that the current sharp decline in housing sales was most radically affected by the lending industries decision to tighten underwriting standards in the second quarter of 2007, making it much more difficult for borrowers to acquire loans.

This general consensus was that lenders may loosen their underwriting standards somewhat this coming year and that changes in the law will have some positive affect on lending as well. The economists’ predictions were that prices will continue to decline slightly for the first half of 2008 and that the market, while still remaining slow, will begin to turn around in the second half of the year. It should be noted that the students who presented agreed. This is perhaps the most important piece of information, since from year to year the students appear to have been more accurate in their forecasts than anyone else. Either way, this is not nearly the gloomy picture of the coming year that many have painted. If 2008 turns out to spell the end of real estate’s downward slide and begin its recovery, it could be a happy new year after all.