The Bail-Out Passed! Are The Problems Fixed?

October 6, 2008

By Joel Persinger
YourRealEstateDude.com

By late morning on Monday San Diego time, I had received three telephone calls from folks lamenting the fact that the stock market had taken an almost 800 point dive. This, in spite of the fact that the much touted government bail-out plan had actually passed both Houses of Congress just days before. Although I desperately wanted to say, “I told you so,” I decided to wait a bit longer to find out if the markets would level out by the end of the trading day. All things considered, it was worth the wait. By the end of the day the Dow had climbed back up a bit, but still closed down some 328 points and below the 10,000 level for the first time since October 2004.

What this means for real estate in San Diego County remains to be seen. But, what it teaches us about government bail-outs and market reactions would fill volumes. The financial markets react to most things one way or the other and overreact to just about everything. Many thought that passing the bail-out plan would spur Wall Street to new heights based upon a new found confidence in the American and worldwide economies. No such result has materialized. Some seemed to feel that government intervention was a panacea that would cure the ills of suffering homeowners across the nation. I suspect that this will fail to come to pass as a direct result of the bail-out as well.

The unfortunate fact is that government, in most cases, is not the answer to what ails us. Even in the rare instances in which government is the answer, any effect government action such as the bail-out may have doesn’t typically materialize for quite some time. However, there are three things that are fairly certain to come out of such government intervention: Politicians can brag about having done something, money will be skimmed off by the wrong people and probably not get to the right people, and the very practices which got us into this mess in the first place will remain unchanged and unaffected.

If you disagree with my thinking, consider this; the same Congressional leaders who legislated and leveraged us into a high risk system in which borrowers who could not pay the money back were given loans, are still in power today. If that isn’t enough, those same leaders have just been given almost a trillion dollars more to waste. Still, they are only half of the problem. The same average Americans who took out crazy loans so they could use their homes like ATM machines or who lived off of the equity in homes they should never have been able to buy in the first place, are going to have their actions validated and be officially dubbed “victims” by a political process all too eager to buy a vote. Thus, they will not only be allowed to repeat their actions, but will most likely be encouraged to do so once more.

So, if you want a prediction from a fellow who knows real estate, here it is. If you were thinking about buying because prices are low and there are hundreds of distressed homes for sale, have at it. The situation is not likely to change any time soon.