Monday, September 29, 2008

Why the Bail-Out May Not Matter

By Joel Persinger
YourRealEstateDude.com

As of this writing, the House of Representatives, under pressure from constituents who vehemently opposed the 700 billion dollar bail-out of the country’s financial system, defeated the measure on a vote of 226 to 207. Both Democrats and Republicans opposed the measure in large numbers. Stocks tumbled on the news with the Dow losing nearly 800 points. But, what does this mean for the real estate market?

To answer this question, let me take you back in time. In spite of what you may have heard, the U.S. Congress has been pressuring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase the availability of home loans to low income families for many years. That is how the “sub-prime” market was born. Many high ranking members of government argued against the expanding of such lending practices without success. Most notably, then Treasury Secretary Snow made such arguments and urged Congress to change its ways and further regulate Fannie and Freddie back in 2001. Former Fed Chairman Greenspan did the same some time later. In fact, for the past seven years, members of the current administration have been warning Congress that the financial system might well collapse under the strain if Fannie and Freddie were not reigned in. Congress did nothing. Thus, if we are honest about it, we can clearly see that Congress’s effort at forcing our financial system to provide loans to those who have no way to pay them back was a recipe for disaster.

Now that we’ve figured that out, we must ask why the same Congress which refused to address the coming train wreck, even after having been warned repeatedly, is now attempting to use the White House’s proposed bail-out for the purpose of rescuing the failed system they refused to correct. Instead of allowing the marketplace to replace homeowners who cannot pay their mortgages with new homeowners who are financially sound, many in Congress would like to keep those who cannot pay in their houses by passing the cost along to the taxpayers. In order to accomplish this, the news has spread the notion that nobody can get loans because lenders aren’t lending and banks are collapsing all over the place. Nothing could be further from the truth!

The truth is that homebuyers are buying! Prices are low, interest rates are great and the banks which are strong because they did not get involved with the sub-prime market are happily lending to qualified buyers. In addition, the banks which are failing are being gobbled up by banks which are financially strong. I had money in Washington Mutual and guess what… my money is still there because a strong bank purchased WAMU when it failed.

Our financial system is working, but it isn’t pain free. People who acted wisely are winning and those who acted foolishly are losing. That is how life works and if the government stays out of it, the market will heal itself. The problem is, you don’t win an election by letting people experience the natural consequences of their choices.

Does the bail-out really matter? The answer is both yes and no. If you are trying to win an election, then perhaps the answer is yes. If you are concerned about the health of the market and the future of our country, then the answer is a resounding no. If left alone, the real estate and financial markets will take care of themselves.

Is The Proposed Market Bail-Out a Good Thing?

By Joel Persinger
YourRealEstateDude.com
Sept 22, 2008

A few days ago the Secretary of the United States Treasury proposed a massive bail-out of U.S. (and foreign) financial institutions. The details of the plan are sketchy at best, but the initial price tag was estimated at around 700 billion dollars at the time it was announced. This is in addition to the already astronomical costs associated with bailing out insurance giant A.I.G and financial hulks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Apparently, the idea is for the government to buy up all the bad mortgages out there and use tax-payer money to do it. That way the banks, which made the foolish decisions to provide shaky loans in the first place, won’t have to suffer the consequences of their foolishness. The U.S. tax-payer will simply pick up the tab and along with it, the risk of failure. According to the Secretary of the Treasury, this is a good thing.

Some members of Congress want to provide a bail-out plan for homeowners as part of the package. If John and Jane Doe can’t make their house payments, the Congress believes that its only fair that the tax-payer step up to the plate and make sure that John and Jane don’t have to suffer the consequences either. Never mind the fact that, in many cases, John and Jane are not victims at all, but rather, folks who made foolish decisions and dug themselves into a financial hole. But, we can’t let them fail! That would be un-American… wouldn’t it?

There was a time when Americans held the deep and abiding belief that the opportunity to succeed also included the opportunity to fail. Immigrants came to this country from all over the world in search of the very opportunity provided by that strong belief. Only in America did every person have the right to embark upon the dream of owning a business, buying a home and enjoying prosperity without government interference in the form of unfair taxation and crushing regulation. However, it was implicit in the design that having an opportunity to take a crack at success came with the very real risk of ending in failure.

That is not today’s America. In today’s America, people are not supposed to succeed too much, lest they be taxed and their money distributed to those who have failed. In today’s America, people are not supposed to fail. If they do, they can count on the government to give them some of the money it has taken forcefully from those who have succeeded. Dear reader, this is the essence of socialism and it bares no resemblance to the freedom upon which this nation was built. While it may serve to prop up the real estate and financial markets in the short term by controlling what happens at the top, it has every possibility of eliminating opportunity and freedom by destroying the foundations at the bottom.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Should the Government Bail Out Lehman Brothers?

By Joel Persinger
YourRealEstateDude.com

If you’ve been follow the business news, you must be amazed at the number of historic events that have occurred in 2008. Bear Stearns collapsed only to be rescued by the U.S. Government, Countrywide Home Loans was saved by Bank of America, Fannie and Freddie were bailed out by Uncle Sam last week and this past weekend, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch decided to sell out to Bank of America. Wow, what a year!

With what the presidential candidates have both dubbed a “financial crisis” upon us, the news is full of talking heads on every side of the issue. Some say the Government should come to the rescue of Lehman Brothers just as it has for other companies. Others say, “Let the free market system heal itself.” Meanwhile, the stock market is going nuts and the news media is circling the story in a feeding frenzy like so many ravenous sharks smelling blood.

To figure out what should be done to fix this mess, we need only think about what kind of financial system we have in this country. It’s called capitalism. In a free market, capitalistic system companies rise and fall depending upon their financial success or failure. The strong survive and the weak do not. When failing companies collapse, they are absorbed by stronger companies, which often provide the same services in a more effective and successful way then did the failing companies they purchased.

Take Bank of America for example. Obviously, Bank of America is in a better financial position than both Countrywide and Merrill Lynch. Otherwise, how could Bank of America buy the two failed firms? Somehow I suspect that if Bank of America actually ends up with both of these companies, home loans and investment products will still be offered to its customers. Even if nobody rescues Lehman Brothers and it goes down the tubes after 158 years, investors will still be able to invest and homebuyers will still be able to secure a loan. So, what exactly have we lost with the collapse of theses poorly run, failed companies? That’s right… we’ve lost a few poorly run, failed companies. Maybe I’m crazy, but that’s a good thing, isn’t it?

My Grandfather always said, “Joel, if you want to be successful, find out what everyone else is doing and do the opposite.” Grandpa was right. If you want to see the opportunities in today’s marketplace, you must turn away from the idiot box and look at what is positive in the financial world. Remember, the news media does not exist to inform you. It exists to make money, period. It sells more advertising and makes more money by pushing sensational stories. Where do you think the old saying, “If it bleeds, it leads”, came from? I spent 18 years in the broadcasting business. Believe me, I know.

There is a lot of great economic news that you should know about. Here are some examples from today’s news: the price of oil is down under $100 per barrel, investors are putting their money into bonds, mortgage rates are down because investors are buying bonds, home prices are very low, home buyers are buying all over town, the home loan business is picking up and real estate sales are improving.

The economy is not collapsing, the sky is not falling and if Lehman Brothers goes out of business it’s because it should! As tax payers, we should not; we must not continue to bail out poorly run, failing companies. Let the market do what it is meant to do. The strong will survive and the weak will be absorbed by the strong. That is called a free market. That is called capitalism, and it works.

U.S. Government Takeover of Fannie & Freddie

By Joel Persinger
YourRealEstateDude.com

As a card carrying tax payer who dreads the ever increasing involvement of government in our day to day lives, I must admit to having a feeling of foreboding as a result of Sunday’s government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Uncle Sam raced in with a pot full of money (yours and mine) to prop up the ailing companies which have experienced record losses. I should also mention that the CEOs of both companies are being bounced out the door.

The U.S. Government (that means you and I) will purchase some $1 billion of preferred shares in each company in an effort to make this deal work. You and I have apparently also pledged to provide as much as an additional $200 billion to help Fannie and Freddie deal with the heavy losses they’ve already suffered as a result of defaulting mortgages. When asked how much you and I, as tax payers, will eventually have to pay for this deal everyone says, “I don’t know.”

The “plan” places both companies into a conservatorship. What does that mean? Well, it means that the management of the companies will be controlled by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, also known as the FHFA. It also means that the U.S. Congress will now have its fingers in the Fannie and Freddie cookie jar to a much greater degree than ever before. This is the same Congress that can’t agree on where to have lunch on any given day let alone how to effectively manage the tax payer’s money.

While my knee jerk reaction is to slam the whole thing as just another unwanted intrusion by the government into affairs that it neither understands nor has the capability of addressing, it appears that the financial markets are rather keen on the idea, at least for the moment.

Financial markets around the world surged this morning as a result of the news and just about every talking head on the planet is predicting lower interest rates for home buyers and greater stability in the lending market. Even the loan officers and loan manager in my office seem to be feeling rather positive about it.Who knows, it may provide some needed breathing room for the financial markets in the short term. Just the same, I will reserve judgment for a while. In my experience, markets which are allowed to heal themselves come back stronger and healthier as a result. However, when the government inserts itself and takes on the mantle of, “Lord of the Marketplace” rather than allowing a holistic healing to take place, a new and greater set of problems are not far behind.